Will Housing Policy Play a Role in the Next General Election?

The challenge of reforming the planning system and increasing the supply of housing is one that concerns both main parties and could play a key role in the next general election. The UK faces a backlog of up to 4 million homes.[1] The Conservative Government is not on track to meet its 2019 manifesto target of 300,000 homes constructed per year.[2] Labour has pledged to reinstate housing targets and reform planning to increase provision.[3]

Government Policy

In May 2021, the Government announced a Planning Bill in the Queen’s Speech, aiming to simplify and speed up the planning system.[4] This Bill was not published in the 2021-2022 session, with planning reforms instead incorporated into the Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill, introduced in May 2022.[5] Changes announced in this Bill include the introduction of a digitized planning systems, greater legal weight for local plans, strengthened protections for the environment in local plans and the introduction of mandatory design codes.[6]

Since the introduction of the Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill, the Government has continued to introduce reforms to the planning system to increase housing supply. In December 2022, the Government published a consultation on changes to the National Planning Policy Framework to speed up build out and clarify how housing targets should be derived and applied.[7] In July 2023, the Government opened a separate consultation, which presented proposals to simplify local plans.[8] In the same month, the Government announced a long-term plan for housing, which introduced minor changes to planning policy across England.[9] In August 2023, the Government announced that they would amend the Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill to remove legacy EU laws on nutrient neutrality, intended to increase the supply of housing.[10]

Labour Policy

The Labour Party’s next manifesto is in development, so policy commitments are still being formulated and finalised. However, Sir Keir Starmer has stated that ‘the sheer number [of properties] has to go up’ and that relative to income, he would like to see house prices come down.[11] To this end, Labour has pledged to reinstate housing targets while acknowledging this alone will not be enough.[12]

In a speech in June 2023, the then Shadow Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Lisa Nandy MP implied that a Labour Government would consider making changes to the Green Belt to increase housebuilding, reform the planning system to increase housebuilding while also being fair to communities and create new local development corporations.[13] Further detail to these policies can be expected nearer the next general election.

The Role of Housing in the Next General Election

Historically, housing has played a lesser role in general elections, behind other issues. Despite the continued undersupply of homes in the UK, that remains unchanged. According to YouGov, only 22% of adults believe housing is the most important issue facing the country, behind the economy, health, immigration & asylum and the environment.[14] The Labour Party has, in the last year, made efforts to increase the salience of housing policy as a political issue, and to highlight the poor record of the Conservative Government. That may continue in a General Election, where Labour might criticise the Government for failures such as the undersupply of housing, increasing average rents, and an undersupply of social housing.

On the other hand, both main parties have an incentive to avoid making housing a critical issue in the next election. The Conservatives will be unwilling to highlight their record of failure to meet housing targets, while Labour will seek to punish the Government’s record where their mistakes have been more obvious, such as on public services, the NHS and the economy.

Further, both parties are subject to internal divisions on the subject of housing. At the Report Stage of the Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill in November 2022, Theresa Villiers MP tabled an amendment to the Bill which would have changed the mandatory housing targets for local planning authorities to be advisory only.[15] The size of the rebellion prompted Michael Gove, the Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Secretary, to drop compulsory housing targets.[16] Similarly, while the Labour Party, nationally, supports measures to increase housing supply, individual MPs or local parties often campaign against specific housing developments.[17][18] The importance of local parties in campaigning during election campaigns gives both parties a strong incentive to focus more attention on issues other than housing, particularly in suburban or rural seats, to avoid angering their own activists.

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[1] Centre for Cities, The housebuilding crisis: The UK’s 4 million missing homes, 22 February 2023, link

[2] House of Commons Library, Tackling the under-supply of housing in England¸ 19 May 2023, link

[3] Sky News, Labour will build on green belt to boost housing, Starmer says, 17 May 2023, link

[4] Prime Minister’s Office, The Queen’s Speech 2021, 11 May 2021, link

[5] Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, New Bill to level up the nation, 11 May 2022, link

[6] Ibid

[7] Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill: reforms to national planning policy, 22 December 2022, link

[8] Department for Levelling up, Housing and Communities, Plan-making reforms: consultation on implementation, 25 July 2023, link

[9] Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Long-term plan for housing, 24 July 2023, link

[10] Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, 100,000 more homes to be built via reform of defective EU laws, 29 August 2023, link

[11] The Guardian, House prices need to fall relative to income, Keir Starmer says, 17 May 2023, link

[12] Sky News, Labour will build on green belt to boost housing, Starmer says, 17 May 2023, link

[13] PolicyMogul, Lisa Nandy speech to Housing 2023, 28 June 2023, link

[14] YouGov, The most important issues facing the country, 25 September, link

[15] House of Commons, Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill, As Amended (Amendment Paper) p.89, 23 November 2022, link

[16] The Guardian, Sunak to scrap housebuilding targets after pressure from Tory MPs, 5 December 2022, link

[17] Rupa Huq MP, Rupa Huq MP and community groups express outrage after Perceval House redevelopment approved, 1 April 2021, link

[18] Wayne David MP, Second front is opened against Caerphilly’s Local Development Plan, 8 April 2016, link

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