The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 is one of the most consequential votes in recent British political history. Brevia’s political intelligence team is monitoring the campaign closely and advising clients on what the result could mean for their sector, their stakeholders and their relationship with Government. If your company would appreciate a briefing on the implications for your organisation, get in touch with the Brevia team today.
The by-election was triggered on 14 May 2026 when sitting Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his seat in the House of Commons, thereby providing a route for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to re-enter Parliament.
This seat was won by Simons in 2024 with a 5,399 majority over Reform UK. Simons had previously resigned from his ministerial position as Parliamentary Secretary for the Cabinet Office in March 2026, following an investigation into allegations that his former think tank, Labour Together, had commissioned a private investigation into journalists’ backgrounds.[1] Although cleared of breaching the Ministerial Code, Simons described his continued presence in Government as a ‘distraction’.[2] His resignation from Parliament was formalised on 18 May 2026 when he was appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds (a formality necessary in order to resign a seat).[3]
Andy Burnham and the Labour NEC Decision
On 15 May 2026, Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) formally approved Burnham to enter the local candidate selection process. Burnham will retain his mayoral seat during the campaign and only step down if he wins the by-election. This decision is notable given that it was the NEC that previously blocked Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, a decision that has remained contentious within the party.[4]
The 2026 Makerfield By-Election Candidates
The confirmed candidates standing on 18 June are, in alphabetical order:
- Andy Burnham — Labour Party. Three-time Mayor of Greater Manchester and former MP for Leigh.
- Alan ‘Howlin’ Laud Hope — Official Monster Raving Loony Party. Co-founder of the party alongside Screaming Lord Sutch.
- Robert Kenyon — Reform UK. A self-employed plumber who stood in Makerfield at the 2024 general election, finishing second to Josh Simons.
- Rebecca Shepherd — Restore Britain. A businesswoman and the first candidate officially announced.
- Michael Winstanley — Conservative Party. Former Mayor of Wigan in 2010/11.
- Re-opened Nominations — Green Party. The Green Party candidate has withdrawn, as the party apologised for posts shared by Chris Kennedy about Jewish ambulance attacks.[5] Nominations have now been reopened.
Can Reform UK Win Makerfield?
In 2024, Josh Simons won the seat with a 5,399-vote majority (13.4 percentage points) over Reform UK, but the political landscape has shifted since then. During the May 2026 local elections, Reform UK swept every council ward within the Makerfield constituency, securing roughly 50 per cent of the vote share compared to Labour’s 27 per cent, and Reform would need a swing of just 6.7 per cent compared to 2024 to win it.[6] Reform UK leaders Nigel Farage and Richard Tice have promised to ‘throw absolutely everything’ at the campaign to defeat Burnham.[7]
As polling analyst Luke Tryl, Director of More in Common, put it: ‘We have two amazing forces playing against each other — the demographics of the seat, which all point to a Reform win, versus Burnham’s personal factor.’[8]
Why the Makerfield Result Matters Beyond the Constituency
The Makerfield by-election is widely regarded as the most consequential UK political battle since the 2024 general election. It is a high-stakes gamble for Andy Burnham’s prime ministerial ambitions, and likewise for Sir Keir Starmer. The by-election follows an exceptionally turbulent week for Downing Street, highlighted by the resignation of Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who openly declared he had ‘lost confidence in [Keir Starmer’s] leadership’.[9]
A Burnham victory would both return him to Westminster and place him in a direct position to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership if he chose to. A Reform win would represent a seismic moment in British politics, demonstrating the party’s ability to defeat a high-profile Labour candidate in a historically ‘safe’ seat.
How Brevia Can Help
The Makerfield by-election is a reminder of how rapidly the political landscape can shift, and how important it is for businesses and organisations to stay ahead of those changes. At Brevia, we work at the intersection of policy, politics and public affairs, monitoring political developments and helping our clients understand what they mean in practice.
Discover how Brevia can help you and your organisation by contacting the Brevia Team on 020 7091 1650 or contact@brevia.co.uk
BREVIA CONSULTING PROVIDES STRAIGHTFORWARD POLITICAL ADVICE AND SUPPORT TO BUSINESSES AND ORGANISATIONS
[1] BBC News, Minister Josh Simons resigns after Labour Together claims, 28 February 2026, link
[2] Civil Service World, Cabinet Office minister resigns, 2 March 2026, link
[3] Gov UK, Three Hundreds of Chiltern, 18 May 2026, link
[4] Brevia, Why Labour’s NEC Blocked Andy Burnham from Standing for Parliament, 2 February 2026, link
[5] The Guardian, Green party candidate for Makerfield byelection withdraws after nine hours, 22 May 2026, link
[6] BBC News, What does Makerfield make of by-election and can Burnham win?, 15 May 2026, link
[7] X, Nigel Farage, 14 May 2026, link
[8] The Guardian, Andy Burnham faces perilous race to win Makerfield byelection, allies say, 17 May 2026, link
